Phase Thinking

by: Jaffer Ali

The pandemic has crystallized a difference in the decision making process that is needed to survive in a crisis. Following is an outline of different phases in thinking and acting.

1/ Thoughts inspired by @yaneerbaryam thread. What is “Phase thinking”? Some people are great at making decisions in a less chaotic, conventional phase. Time is not necessarily a critical factor. In fact, procrastination is lionized as a virtue in this phase.

2/ Conventional phase thinking is typified by what I call the “Manana” attitude. Bureaucrats love this phase. A lack of skin in the game is also typical in this phase. Passing the buck, decisions by committee, delayed action, etc. is a deep groove where the saw slowly cuts.

3/ As we move into the Contingency phase of thinking, action becomes a bit more critical. Time is a new factor affecting decisions. Time is not the determining factor, but anxiety starts to build. Many within decision structures do not necessarily recognize this phase shift

4/ The Contingency Phase is confusing to bureaucrats. They lack the facilities for dealing with the ground shifting beneath their feet. They are brutally applying conventional rules to this phase and are frustrated, thinking “what’s wrong with everybody else”.

5/ As we continue into Crisis Phase, all Hell has broken loose. Everyone speaks as if there is a crisis, but all the rules of decision making have been shredded. Time replaces cost…replaces expediency. Those steeped in old premises of “efficiency”; of “measure twice, cut once”

6/ are lost, disorients. The language of action (praxis) is not theoretical, but front and center. Time is the currency. Those still preaching to slow down are shadows not corporeal. The environment REQUIRES decision making that matches the pace of a crisis environment.

7/ Language has changed by even bureaucrats. Language is not important but action is. Forget about what people are saying. They MAY talk crisis but OFTEN act as if times are normal. These people actually are WORSE than neutral, their inability to act is literally deadly in crises

8/ 3 phases of thinking will be exhibited in every domain; politics, military; business; academics. Few people are good at decision making in all 3 phases. Skill sets are different in each phase.

Marketing in a Pandemic Tweetstorm

by: Jaffer Ali

1/ Marketing in a Pandemic; First rule, ignore all marketing experts. Old rules do not apply. In most cases, you SHOULD NOT think about creating demand, but responding to demand. In fact, “selling” during a pandemic is gauche or vulgar. Satisfying existing demand is uplifting.

2/ Advice to the sales and mkting people during COVID crisis has been, “Do not sell. Be to the point. Say we have sanitizer and masks in stock and shipping”. No sales pitch is needed or desired. Creative approaches stress availability. TELL DON’T SELL.

3/ My sister, the ultimate pitch lady on video toned it down and did not “yell and sell” like most pitched, but was more descriptive and more of a “show and tell”. Youtube ranks her video on KN95 masks for search “KN95 masks” has #2 ranking because not a sales pitch, but how to wear.

4/ Marketing in a pandemic becomes more of a logistics issue. There are huuuuge shortages of ingredients, components, products. Concentrate on securing supply. Demand is there. 80% of effort is in securing supply.

5/ If supply is secure, you will INSTANTLY UNDERSTAND WHY owning your own media is important as you control messaging, cannot be kicked off platform (Amazon, eBay, Google, FB, etc.). But new ad rules emerge in a crisis.

6/ IN BEST OF TIMES, 85% of ad inventory goes unsold. In a pandemic, who is even advertising? What % of businesses are closed down? Are they advertising? Of course not. The 85% unsold online ad inventory is now 95% unsold. And that extra 10% extra unsold is has nonlinear benefits

7/ Hammurabi actually had a cure for the online media market (or radio & television for that matter). Media are now willing to share risk. For more detail, read: https://jafferaliblog.wordpress.com/2015/12/02/hammurabis-cure-for-a-lemons-market/

8/ #1 rule of marketing in a Pandemic is to be FAST. If you operate under conventional rules with deliberate processes, you will get chewed up. Crisis marketing (really distribution) is different. You better charge enough as well because supply chains pricing is fluid.

9/ Fluidity in pricing isn’t generally understood. Traders & drug dealers*get it* get it. Guys that wear ties are often left holding their d*cks in their hands. Your market may not understand fluidity in pricing but if YOU do not understand it, go home and take the short cut.

10/ Satisfying demand in a Pandemic (this is a better phrase than marketing) is short term. You WILL piss off a lot of people along the way, even as they pay you. Do not be “King Rat” ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Rat_(film)  & approach what you are doing with eyes open

11/ Be prepared for 24-7 work cycle and take naps when body demands. I cannot emphasize this enough. Selling in a Pandemic is grueling as issues pop up several times a day. You must manage your health. If you drink, STOP during this time.

12/ Managing costs takes a back seat to speed. If you are flexible to charging more, costs is not much of a factor. A week ago, our costs for the surgical face masks went up 7% in 3 hours. We raised price immediately. The “elasticity of demand” doesn’t obey conventional times

13/ Time is precious. Brokers in the middle who do do not take risk and are trying to make a market and not purchase product will eat your time. My sister was offered our own Purifize sanitizer by a clown. Get rid of intermediaries and sell direct when you can.

14/ Huge media opportunities so you can sell direct to consumers if you have a website. You can wholesale directly to end users easily in a Pandemic. As we said repeatedly, it does not take genius salesmanship to get someone on the phone and say, “we have masks”

15/ So, the end to this tweet storm is really a distillation. What is in most demand and how can you supply it? My cousin couldn’t find hand sanitizer at 4 stores, we solved the supply issue and the rest took care of itself.